Conservatives in position to win, if polls held now in Canada

If Federal elections were held today, several Indo-Canadian incumbent MPs from the ruling Liberal Party in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), including a Cabinet Minister, could lose their seats to the opposition Conservatives, mirroring a nationwide trend.

In a televised survey on Thursday, the outlet Y Media, based on data from the Toronto-headquartered polling firm Mainstreet Research, projected that in the Peel Region, the Conservatives with 42.3% support comfortably lead the ruling Liberals, who have 36.4% backing.

This region, also known as the 905 after its telephone area code, is critical for the fortunes of any Federal party and crucial to forming Government. In the last three Federal elections, in 2015, 2019 and 2021, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau returned to power helped by his party sweeping the ridings (as constituencies are called in Canada) in Peel, which includes Brampton, Mississauga and Caledon.

That scenario appears to have changed with the Conservatives making inroads in the region and leading in the majority of seats. Among those in danger of being ousted from the House of Commons is Cabinet Minister Kamal Khera, who handles the Diversity, Inclusion and Persons with Disabilities portfolio. With just 29.2 per cent support, she trails the yet to be nominated Conservative candidate by over 16 per cent from Brampton West.

However, not all Liberal candidates are facing such a dire outcome, as Parliamentary Secretary Maninder Sidhu has a huge lead 17% in the Brampton East riding.

But the trend appears to be towards the Conservatives overall, as Y Media editor-in-chief Yudhvir Jaswal said, “If the elections were held today, most of the Liberals MPs could lose their seats.”

Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research said, “People have made up their minds.” He added these numbers “should be concerning numbers for the Liberals and incumbent candidates.”

Peel has a large Indo-Canadian population, nearly a quarter of the total.

Overall, these figures reflect the national trend, as the tracking website 338 Canada currently projects the Conservatives to easily get a majority, with 199 seats, if elections were held today. The majority mark in the 338-seat House is 170. The Liberals, meanwhile, are on track to be reduced to just 74 seats. In the September 2021 Federal elections, Trudeau returned to head another minority Government with 157 seats as against 121 for the Conservatives. That led to then Conservative leader Erin O’Toole’s resignation and the election of Pierre Poilievre to replace him.

According to a February 6 poll from the agency Nanos, the Conservatives enjoying 40% support versus only 24.7% for the Liberals. Poilievre is preferred by 35% for Prime Minister with only 21% wanting Trudeau in that position.

However, elections are still distant, scheduled for the autumn of 2025 but the Conservatives lead has been steady for several months, benefiting from the public citing economic issues as their principal concern, with Nanos listing inflation, cost of housing, jobs and the economy as the three major items.

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